The Vaccines, Autism, and Asterisk of Doom
The Reality Projects: Taking On Misinformation
Few things capture the disconnect between scientific reality and the new HHS under RFK Jr. more succinctly than the asterisk now dangling from a CDC page on vaccines and autism.
The headline still reads:
“Vaccines Do Not Cause Autism.”
But the new asterisk — a perfect microcrystal of manufactured doubt — directs readers to a disclaimer claiming this is “not an evidence-based claim” because studies have “not ruled out” the possibility that infant vaccines contribute to autism.
Science cannot prove the nonexistence of every imaginary creature that stalks the conspiracy mind.
We cannot guarantee that a prehistoric creature isn’t lurking in Loch Ness.
We cannot prove a Sasquatch isn’t camping in the North Cascades.
And we cannot prove that vaccines don’t cause autism in some hypothetical, unspecified way.
The burden of proof does not lie in disproving fantasies.
But the asterisk hangs there anyway, a beacon of misdirection — injecting artificial uncertainty into a scientific question that has been examined more exhaustively than almost any other in public health. And with that single typographical flourish, one of the longest-running misinformation zombies of our time claws its way back to life. If this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve faced this creature many times before. And that’s exactly why the Science Accountability Institute is launching The Reality Projects — a new, permanent, apolitical information infrastructure designed to defeat these monsters systematically, openly, and convincingly. Before we put this one back in the ground for good, we need to take a closer look at the zombie that crawled out of the crypt this week.
Autism, Vaccines, and the Illusion of Correlation
A central theme of this page is and an implied causal link between vaccines and autism because of two trends:
“The rise in autism prevalence since the 1980s correlates with the rise in the number of vaccines given to infants.”
The suggested relationship falls apart the moment you start thinking like and epidemiologist.
Epidemiology always begins with a case definition. The page makes no mention of a key fact: autism diagnoses have never been consistent, stable, or tied to a measurable biological marker.
Autism did not exist as a diagnostic category until 1980.
Criteria expanded repeatedly (1987, 1994, and 2000).
In 2013, the phrase, on the spectrum was born when ASD became a diagnosis.
No objective biomarker exists — diagnosis is inherently subjective.
This is a recipe for confusion for any study of autism epidemiology. Certainly, an assessment of trends in autism that does not take diagnostic drift into account is meaningless. Is this and epidemic of disease or diagnosis? The MAHA-CDC page doesn’t even acknowledge much less attempt to answer that critical question.
Two studies underscore this:
A UK National Health Service evaluation found fewer than 20% of children referred for autism met criteria when evaluated by field experts.
A 2025 Swedish cohort study used the same structured behavioral assessment across children born from 1991–2001 — a period of steep increases in both autism diagnoses and vaccine doses. Result: no increase in autism-related behaviors.
The Timeline Problem
If vaccines caused autism, changes in the vaccine schedule should correspond to changes in autism diagnoses.
They don’t.
The polio vaccine (1960) and MMR vaccine (1971) produced no substantial change in autism diagnoses.
Autism diagnoses rise after 1980, coinciding with DSM revisions.
Vaccines increase in steps; autism rises smoothly.
No major vaccine introduction corresponds with any inflection point in autism trends.
The temporal data fail the test.
The curves disagree.
The zombie stumbles.
Even if the curves did line up, they do not provide evidence of causation. That requires much more involved epidemiological and laboratory studies. Let’s consider the evidence.
The Evidence: What It Actually Says
The MAHA-CDC page claims:
“In fact, there are still no studies that support the claim that any of the 20 doses of the seven infant vaccines recommended for American children before the first year of life do not cause autism.”
This is a rhetorical trap, not a scientific standard.
Science does not prove universal negatives; it tests hypotheses.
And this one has been tested more than almost any hypothesis in modern medicine.
The Evidence Base Is Enormous
1,200+ studies
10 meta-analyses
8 Institute of Medicine reports
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality systematic review
Their conclusions are unanimous:
There is strong evidence that the MMR vaccines do not cause autism and no evidence that any other vaccine causes autism.
The MAHA-CDC page specifically mentions two IOM studies and the AHRQ review some of these studies — then pretends their conclusions do not exist.
This is not evidence-based policy.
This is policy-based evidence.
Parental Fear Is Not Proof, It’s a Problem
Another justification offered:
“Approximately one in two surveyed parents of autistic children believe vaccines played a role in their child’s autism”
This is not evidence of causation.
It is evidence of harm — the psychological and informational trauma caused by twenty years of misinformation.
Autism is typically identified during the same period when children receive multiple vaccines. Temporal proximity plus fear reliably produces intuitive, but incorrect, causal beliefs.
This is human.
This is understandable.
And this has been ruthlessly exploited.
This mistaken belief that parental fear is proof rather than a problem is so integral to MAHA thinking that it appears again. In the discussion of the AHRQ report which mentions “a threefold risk of parental report of autism among newborns receiving a HepB vaccine” even though the agency determined “there was insufficient evidence of an association of the HepB vaccine and autism.”
RFK Jr. has spent two decades cultivating and inflaming these fears — building a movement, a media platform, and now an entire federal narrative around them. Given that he fomented that anxiety, it is not surprising that he resists acknowledging its harm.
The Reality Projects
Building Truth-seeking Infrastructure
With this asterisk, MAHA-CDC has officially detached from scientific reality, meaning federal websites are no longer reliable sources of information. The Reality Projects will create a durable, apolitical, publicly accessible foundation for scientific reality — so that strategies for confronting misinformation zombies can be shared, improved, and then relied on every time one tries to return.
Each Reality Project will:
Build a comprehensive library of relevant research
Aggregate critiques and commentary from subject matter experts
Produce objective, quantitative summaries
Highlight high-quality meta-analyses
Engage domain-specific expert reviewers
Commit to:
Considering all viewpoints
Avoiding politics
Embracing nuance
Acknowledging uncertainty
The first Reality Project will address vaccines and autism — not as a one-off rebuttal, but as a permanent, continuously updated resource.
Why We Need a Different Strategy
Every time this zombie rises from the dead, researchers and clinicians drop everything to beat it back.
And every time, it rises again.
This cycle is exhausting, inefficient, and dangerous.
It’s time to stop re-fighting the same battles and build a structure that keeps misinformation where it belongs — in the ground.
Please Support Our Work
The Reality Projects exist to break that cycle. They are a commitment to build the permanent, apolitical scientific backbone the country now lacks — and to maintain it with the rigor, transparency, and discipline that this moment demands.
That work takes time. It takes expertise. It requires continuous monitoring, updating, curation, and review. And it requires resources.
If you believe this misinformation zombie should stay buried — and if you believe in an evidence infrastructure strong enough to keep future monsters from rising again — please support the Science Accountability Institute.